An initiative by The Agropreneurs

VISION 2040

Securing the Future of Agriculture in Pakistan

Building a productive, adaptable, sustainable and inclusive agricultural future.

Our vision

A shared future for Pakistan's agriculture

By 2040, we envision a Pakistan where agriculture provides farmers with dignified and sustainable livelihoods, uses water and natural resources responsibly, produces nutritious and affordable food, and embraces innovation to improve productivity and adaptability.

We believe Pakistan’s agricultural future depends not on a single technology, policy or intervention, but on the combined strength of its farmers, researchers, entrepreneurs, businesses, institutions and communities.

VISION 2040 is an initiative by The Agropreneurs to help shape that future. Through research, public engagement and collaboration, we aim to understand the challenges facing Pakistan’s agriculture, identify opportunities for meaningful transformation and encourage evidence-based action towards a stronger agricultural and food system.

Why this matters

Why Pakistan needs an agricultural transformation

Agriculture is central to Pakistan’s economy, rural livelihoods and food security. It supports millions of people, supplies raw materials to industry and contributes to the availability and affordability of food.

Yet the sector faces growing pressures. Water resources are under strain, climate variability is increasing uncertainty, production costs remain a concern, and access to finance, reliable advice, improved inputs and appropriate technology is uneven.

Soil degradation and nutrient loss threaten long-term productivity.

Water shortages affect yields, irrigation efficiency and farm viability.

Market inefficiencies and limited finance prevent farmers from benefiting from innovation.

Pakistan has major opportunities in better water management, digital advisory services and climate adaptation.

Evidence

What the evidence tells us

Agriculture growth, FY2024–25

0.56%

Overall growth can conceal major differences between subsectors.

Crop-sector growth

-6.82%

Crop production remains highly exposed to changing production conditions.

Livestock growth

+4.72%

Livestock remains an important contributor to rural livelihoods and agricultural value.

Cotton production

7.08M bales

Down 30.7%, affecting farmers, textile supply chains and rural incomes.

Wheat production

28.98M tonnes

Down 8.9%, with direct implications for national food security.

Surface water availability

89.9 MAF

National availability does not reflect what individual farms actually receive.

Source note

These figures are drawn from the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25 and should be interpreted according to the reporting period, definitions and provisional status stated in the original source. National averages can hide major differences between provinces, districts, farming systems and individual farms.

Ambition

What we want to achieve by 2040

Productive and Economically Viable Agriculture

Improve output, resource efficiency and farm profitability while ensuring farming remains viable for the people who depend on it.

Climate Adaptation and Responsible Resource Management

Build resilience against heat, drought, flooding and irregular rainfall through better irrigation, soil health and resource stewardship.

Innovation That Serves Farmers

Use improved seed, machinery, digital advisory tools and data that are affordable, accessible and useful in real farm conditions.

Inclusive Opportunities and Stronger Livelihoods

Create opportunities for smallholders, tenants, women, young people, livestock keepers, farm workers and rural entrepreneurs.

Stronger Food Systems and Evidence-Led Decisions

Support nutritious and affordable food, reduce avoidable losses and turn evidence into practical action across the value chain.

Priority areas

Eight strategic priorities for agricultural transformation

Water Security and Efficient Irrigation

Explore better scheduling, water management and technologies that raise productivity while protecting smallholders in water-stressed areas.

Climate Adaptation in Agriculture

Identify local adaptations that strengthen resilience across crops, livestock and rural incomes under changing seasonal conditions.

Higher and More Reliable Productivity

Improve seed quality, soil health, agronomy, machinery and farm management so gains are more consistent and sustainable.

Soil Health and Salinity Management

Understand how soil conditions, salinity and waterlogging affect long-term agricultural performance and natural resource protection.

Farmer-Centred Technology and Innovation

Assess whether digital tools, satellite information and AI are affordable, accessible and actually delivering value to farmers.

Profitable Farms and Sustainable Rural Livelihoods

Examine the economics of farming across farm sizes, production systems and local market conditions to strengthen viability.

Stronger Markets and Affordable Nutritious Food

Improve storage, transport, processing and market linkages so food is more available, affordable and of better quality.

Better Agricultural Data and Decision-Making

Strengthen agricultural information systems so policy and planning are based on timely, comparable and transparent evidence.

Two principles across every priority

Inclusion

We will consider how agricultural challenges and opportunities differ for small farmers, tenants, women, young people, livestock keepers and farm workers across provinces and farming systems.

Accountability and collaboration

Agricultural development requires coordination among federal and provincial institutions, research organizations, businesses, service providers and farming communities.

Participation

A vision shaped by Pakistan's agricultural community

No single organisation can understand or address all the challenges facing Pakistan’s agriculture. Farmers experience local realities directly, researchers contribute evidence, entrepreneurs develop solutions, businesses connect markets and public institutions shape policies and services.

Farmers, including smallholders and tenants

Women working across agriculture and livestock

Young people, students and emerging agricultural entrepreneurs

Livestock keepers and agricultural workers

Researchers, universities and extension professionals

Agribusinesses, technology providers and service companies

Financial institutions, policymakers and development organisations

Research approach

Research and public participation: turning vision into evidence

Evidence review

We will examine official statistics, published research and relevant reports to establish a dated baseline, understand existing knowledge and identify important evidence gaps.

Stakeholder survey

We will invite farmers and other stakeholders to share their experiences, challenges, priorities and expectations through an exploratory survey designed to capture practical realities from the ground.

The survey is intended to identify perspectives, patterns and questions for further investigation. It is not designed to be a statistically representative survey of all Pakistani farmers. We will report who participated, explain the limitations of the findings and avoid generalising beyond what the evidence supports.

Technology

Technology that serves people

Technology can support agricultural transformation, but its value should be judged by the problems it solves and the benefits it delivers. Digital advisory services may help farmers make better decisions about crops, irrigation, pests and weather; improved machinery can reduce labour constraints; better information can support risk management and market access.

However, access to a tool does not guarantee meaningful results. Cost, skills, infrastructure, language, trust and local conditions influence whether farmers can use it effectively. VISION 2040 therefore looks beyond the availability of technology to consider affordability, actual use and measurable benefits.

Why 2040?

A planning horizon for the future we want

Transforming agriculture takes time. Improvements in soil health, irrigation infrastructure, research capacity, farm machinery, storage, skills and digital systems require sustained investment and long-term cooperation. The year 2040 provides a horizon for thinking beyond immediate production challenges and considering the agricultural systems future generations will inherit.

What happens next

Publishing a summary of the baseline evidence and key findings.
Identifying gaps where additional research or field-level evidence is needed.
Reviewing existing initiatives across public institutions, universities and private organisations.
Exploring opportunities for practical collaboration and future pilot initiatives.

Take part

Help shape Pakistan's agricultural future

Whether you grow crops, raise livestock, conduct research, provide advice, develop technology or work in agricultural markets, your experience can contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Participate in the research survey

Learn more about The Agropreneurs

Our commitment

A long-term vision built on evidence, innovation and collaboration

The Agropreneurs believes that Pakistan’s agricultural future can be strengthened through evidence, innovation, collaboration and a clear commitment to the people who depend on the sector. VISION 2040 is our contribution to that effort: a long-term vision supported by research, informed by public participation and focused on identifying practical pathways towards agricultural transformation.

References